group is supported by grants from the Singapore National Research Foundation (NRF2012NRF-CRP001-056 and NRF2016NRF-NSFC002-013), the National Medical Research Council of Singapore (MOH-OFIRG19MAY-0011, COVID19RF-003 and NMRC/BNIG/2040/2015) and the Ministry of Education, Singapore (MOE2019-T2-2-130). Cleaners include fish, shrimps and birds; hosts or clients include a much wider range of fish, marine reptiles including turtles and iguanas, octopus, whales, and terrestrial mammals. Mahmud, A. S., Metcalf, C. J. E. & Grenfell, B. T. Comparative dynamics, seasonality in transmission, and predictability of childhood infections in Mexico. Seasonal gaps in measles vaccination coverage in Madagascar. B. et al. The good news is that this presymptomatic spread appears somewhat unique to SARS-CoV-2, at least compared with other acute infections such as influenza, SARS and Ebola virus disease (Fig. The preferred alternative is to use phrases such as number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) and number needed to treat for an additional harmful outcome (NNTH) to indicate direction of effect. Phytopathol. They also inform future research. Pathol. Bar-On, Y. M., Flamholz, A., Phillips, R. & Milo, R. Science forum: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) by the numbers. Scovronick N, Budolfson M, Dennig F, Errickson F, Fleurbaey M, Peng W, Socolow RH, Spears D, Wagner F. The impact of human health co-benefits on evaluations of global climate policy. This increased thermotolerance may have enabled the pathogen to jump from its environmental habitat into an intermediary avian host, given the higher body temperatures of avian fauna, before infecting humans52. [23] Many corals and other marine invertebrates house zooxanthellae, single-celled algae, in their tissues. International travel can lead to the global spread of vector-borne diseases via the introduction of new vectors into regions with suitable environmental conditions or the introduction of new pathogens into native and invasive vector populations. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2005; 3: CD001927. Li, X. et al. See Section 15.5.3.5. Because around 90 per cent of Europes population lived in the countryside, rural studies of mortality are much more important than urban ones. Applicability, transferability and adaptation. The pathogen is endemic to regions of the US Pacific Northwest but has recently spread to other parts of the USA, Europe and South America110,111. As we have noted, review authors should always be cautious when drawing conclusions about implications for practice and they should not make recommendations. Nat Commun. doi: 10.7930/NCA4. Atrophy of the gastrointestinal mucosa, possibly leading to. Users of reviews are liable to be influenced by the choice of statistical presentations of the evidence. C. auris emerged in several continents at the same time and has been shown to have increased thermotolerance compared with other closely related fungal species, which perhaps evolved in response to global warming51,52. Health Hum. Researchers generally used to agree that the Black Death swept away 20-30 per cent of Europes population. When outcomes are continuous, review authors have a number of options to present summary results. By comparing parasites with their closest free-living relatives, parasitism has been shown to have evolved on at least 233 separate occasions. GRADEs certainty domains include a judgement about indirectness to describe all of these aspects including the concept of direct versus indirect comparisons of different interventions (Atkins et al 2004, Guyatt et al 2008, Guyatt et al 2011b). Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 2013a; 66: 158-172. The outbreak of the Black Death in Norway took place before the disease had managed to penetrate southern Germany, again illustrating the great importance of transportation by ship and the relative slowness of spread by land. It is now also clear that the whole of England was conquered in the course of 1349 because, in the late autumn of 1348, ship transport opened a northern front in England for the Black Death, apparently in Grimsby. WebAllen's rule is an ecogeographical rule formulated by Joel Asaph Allen in 1877, broadly stating that animals adapted to cold climates have thicker limbs and bodily appendages than animals adapted to warm climates. 4 When the units and measures are familiar to the decision makers (e.g. The confidence interval (and imprecision) is only one domain that influences overall uncertainty about effect estimates. However, symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 infection likely occur after an individual is already infectious146. & Dubrow, R. Author correction: climate change: an enduring challenge for vector-borne disease prevention and control. 1% absolute reduction in breast cancer risk) (Hoffrage et al 2000). Environ Health. In Florence, the great Renaissance poet Petrarch was sure that they would not be believed: O happy posterity, who will not experience such abysmal woe and will look upon our testimony as a fable. A Florentine chronicler relates that. Need to investigate and identify unpublished data; large studies might help resolve this issue. Rather than rigidly applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria of studies, it is better to ask whether or not there are compelling reasons why the evidence should not be applied to a particular patient. the true effect may be substantially different. PubMedGoogle Scholar. Microbiol. Curtis S, Fair A, Wistow J, Val DV, Oven K. Impact of extreme weather events and climate change for health and social care systems. Rapid rates of urbanization in low-income and middle-income countries, and the increase in populations residing in crowded, low-quality dwellings, have created new opportunities for the emergence of infectious diseases (Fig. For NNTs, the two confidence limits should be labelled as NNTB and NNTH to indicate the direction of effect in each case. 3, 307314 (2001). The relatively rapid advance both northwards up the Rhne valley to Lyons and south-westwards along the coasts towards Spain in chilly months with relatively little shipping activity is striking. 8, 2069 (2017). The disease is widely believed to be the plague, although the location of bumps and blisters is more consistent with smallpox. Sci. et al. Most people believed plague and mass illness to be a punishment from God for their sins. [34] In Early Modern times, Francesco Redi recorded animal parasites, while the microscopist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek observed and illustrated the protozoan Giardia lamblia from "his own loose stools". The strong increase in population in Europe in the High Middle Ages (1050-1300) meant that the prevailing agricultural technology was inadequate for further expansion. albopictus, which then became established in locations with appropriate environmental conditions72,73. Microbiol. The ratio of means method as an alternative to mean differences for analyzing continuous outcome variables in meta-analysis: a simulation study. 15, 17451752 (2009). Table 15.5.c Risk difference derived for specific SMDs for various given proportions improved in the comparator group (Furukawa 1999, Guyatt et al 2013b). Jones, B. Trop. Studies in patients with early cancer are needed because the evidence is from studies in patients with advanced cancer. Review authors may also incorrectly positively frame results for some effects but not others. BMJ 1999; 318: 1548-1551. Microbiol. Finally, dispersal of the pathogen may have occurred via increasing global trade in shellfish, with evidence suggesting possible dispersal via Manila clams introduced into Spain from Canada111. The other approach makes a simple conversion (not shown in Table 15.5.b), before undertaking the meta-analysis, of the means and SDs from each study to means and SDs on the scale of a particular familiar instrument whose MID is known. A similar pattern was reported in the early COVID-19 pandemic39. Talisuna, A. O., Bloland, P. & DAlessandro, U. Med. Climate Change and Human Health Literature Portal, Ebi K.L, Balbus JM, Luber G, Bole A, Crimmins A, Glass G, Saha S, Shimamoto MM, Trtanj J, and White-Newsome JL. A small number of insects are monophagous, feeding on a single plant. J. Malar. [5], A parasite may have a long-term relationship with its host, as is the case with all endoparasites. Health 39, S3S11 (2011). Incidence of coccidioidomycosis (valley fever), caused by inhalation of fungal spores of Coccidioides spp., is expected to increase with climate change as the region with optimal conditions for fungal spore production expands50. This approach avoids the problem of varying SDs across studies that may distort estimates of effect in approaches that rely on the SMD. People with kwashiorkor may look emaciated in their limbs but swollen in their hands and feet, face and belly. Archaeol. including no effect), it is wrong to claim that the experimental intervention has no effect or is no different from the comparator intervention. Vet. A P value is the standard result of a statistical test, and is the probability of obtaining the observed effect (or larger) under a null hypothesis. A recommended approach is to re-express an odds ratio or a risk ratio as a variety of RD or NNTs across a range of assumed comparator risks (ACRs) (McQuay and Moore 1997, Smeeth et al 1999). Hollingsworth, T. D., Ferguson, N. M. & Anderson, R. M. Will travel restrictions control the international spread of pandemic influenza? Variation in the adherence of the recipients and providers of care can limit the certainty in the applicability of results. Megacities as drivers of national outbreaks: The 2017 chikungunya outbreak in Dhaka, Bangladesh. However, if the meta-analysis reported the same risk reduction of 10% but with a wider interval, say, from 2% to 18%, although we would still conclude that our best estimate of the intervention effect is that it provides net benefit, we could not be so confident as we still entertain the possibility that the effect could be between 2% and 5%. BMJ 1998; 316: 690-693. Costard, S., Mur, L., Lubroth, J., Sanchez-Vizcaino, J. M. & Pfeiffer, D. U. Takahashi, S., Greenhouse, B. In addition, for random-effects models, precision will decrease with increasing heterogeneity and confidence intervals will widen correspondingly (see Chapter 10, Section 10.10.4). Review authors can sometimes help decision makers by identifying important variation where divergence might limit the applicability of results (Rothwell 2005, Schnemann et al 2006, Guyatt et al 2011b, Schnemann et al 2013), including biologic and cultural variation, and variation in adherence to an intervention. For example, NNT = 10 does not imply that one additional event. Interface 9, 89101 (2012). As to the population, no individual can be entirely matched to the population included in research studies. Maritime transportation (red and grey) leading to European contact with the Americas and the subsequent Atlantic slave trade resulted in the importation of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and novel viral pathogens129. Asvaccination coverage increases, measles outbreaks, for instance, follow a pathway towards elimination defined by declines in mean incidence but high variability in outbreak size34. Their height-to-age score tells them how much the child's growth has been affected by malnutrition. doi: 10.7930/NCA4. Instead of SD units, the pooled results represent MID units (row 3, Table 15.5.a and Table 15.5.b), and may be more easily interpretable. Clin. Clin. Guidelines 2.0: systematic development of a comprehensive checklist for a successful guideline enterprise. PLoS Med. nematodes), cells harbouring pathogenic (disease-causing) viruses, a bean plant hosting mutualistic (helpful) nitrogen-fixing bacteria. The late twentieth century and the early twenty-first century have been marked by technological developments enabling ever swifter movement of people and pathogens over large distances from trains to planes, and an expanding international airline network (Fig. Lewis, T.K. Case-control study of risk factors for human infection with a new zoonotic paramyxovirus, Nipah Virus, during a 19981999 outbreak of severe encephalitis in Malaysia. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) https://doi.org/10.7927/q7z9-9r69 (2020). [17] Herbivorous insects with a wide range of hosts in various different plant families are known as polyphagous. The plague must have arrived in Oslo in the autumn of 1348, and must have come with a ship from south-eastern England, which had lively commercial contacts with Norway. Johnston B, Thorlund K, Schnemann H, Xie F, Murad M, Montori V, Guyatt G. Improving the interpretation of health-related quality of life evidence in meta-analysis: The application of minimal important difference units. 4). Credibility of claims of subgroup effects in randomised controlled trials: systematic review. 77, 314343 (2017). A.J.T. Friedman LM, Furberg CD, DeMets DL. At the time, this area was under the rule of the Mongol khanate of the Golden Horde. Dis. [1] In parasitism, the parasite benefits at the host's expense. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 2004; 58: 788-793. Preparing summary of findings tables and evidence profiles-continuous outcomes. 19, e06572 (2021). Trop. When treatment begins, people are also at high risk of complications from refeeding syndrome. This gives plague epidemics a peculiar rhythm and pace of development and a characteristic pattern of dissemination. Some organisms enter an animal when it swallows contaminated food or water. All authors contributed substantially to discussion of the content, wrote the article and edited and reviewed the manuscript before submission. Despite efforts to contain the virus, the disease has spread to more than 20 countries in Europe and Asia108,109. Such judgements are typically the domain of clinical practice guideline developers for which Cochrane Reviews will provide crucial information (Graham et al 2011, Schnemann et al 2014, Zhang et al 2018a). Measles and the canonical path to elimination. The distended abdomen typical of kwashiorkor can be misleading in people who are actually critically malnourished. Immunol. Google Scholar. From these the Black Death spread inland. "Sinc A., Epstein, P. R., Burke, T. A. Sci. The Rohingya in Coxs Bazar: when the stateless seek refuge. Annu. It is an NNT for moderate or severe pain. Sci. It is generally assumed that the size of Europes population at the time was around 80 million. To accommodate the growth, forests were cleared and mountain villages settled wherever it was possible for people to eke out a living. Smith, K. F. et al. Abanto, M., Gavilan, R. G., Baker-Austin, C., Gonzalez-Escalona, N. & Martinez-Urtaza, J. COPD: Journal of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease 2005; 2: 81-89. Scovronick N, Budolfson M, Dennig F, Errickson F, Fleurbaey M, Peng W, Socolow RH, Spears D, Wagner F. The impact of human health co-benefits on evaluations of global climate policy. Infect. Cochrane and the GRADE Working Group suggest using a very structured framework to address indirectness. For a novel pathogen to become a threat to human populations, first, contact between humans and the animal reservoir must occur; the pathogen must either have or evolve (Box1) the capacity for human-to-human transmission5; and finally, this human-to-human transmission must enable expansion of the pathogens geographical range beyond the zone of spillover. Other ships that returned at the end of the shipping season in the autumn from the trading stations in Oslo or Bergen, brought the Black Death to a number of other Hanseatic cities both on the Baltic Sea and the North Sea. Do you have feedback about the new online Handbook? The peculiar seasonal pattern of plague has been observed everywhere and is a systematic feature also of the spread of the Black Death. In most cases meta-analyses will be undertaken using a relative measure of effect (RR or OR), and those statistics should be used to calculate the NNT (see Section 15.4.4.2 and 15.4.4.3). There is an important difference between this statement and the correct interpretation that there is a high probability that the observed effect on the outcome is due to chance alone. [30], Hosts of many species are involved in cleaning symbiosis, both in the sea and on land, making use of smaller animals to clean them of parasites. There are no webcasts currently scheduled. Demographic changes to population size and density via urbanization may also affect dynamics. The purpose of Cochrane Reviews is to facilitate healthcare decisions by patients and the general public, clinicians, guideline developers, administrators and policy makers. Wagner, C. E. et al. Asthe trend of urbanization continues, mobility to and from dense urban centres (that is, megacities) will likely play a future role in local spread of infections92. WebThe latest Lifestyle | Daily Life news, tips, opinion and advice from The Sydney Morning Herald covering life and relationships, beauty, fashion, health & wellbeing Global malaria connectivity through air travel. Clim. Much new can be said on the Black Deaths patterns of territorial spread. Syst. The effect is large in the populations that were included in the studies and the true effect is likely going to cross important thresholds. 12, 846 (2021). However, the ultimate impact of these introduction events will depend largely on the population-level susceptibility and environmental suitability for sustained transmission in the destination country. The second category for authors conclusions in a Cochrane Review is implications for research. Knight-Jones, T. J. D. & Rushton, J. However, all of the terms describe one overarching theme: whether or not available research evidence can be directly used to answer the health and healthcare question at hand, ideally supported by a judgement about the degree of confidence in this use (Schnemann et al 2013). U.S. and world health organizations have said that climate change is a critical public health challenge. Such an area is called a plague focus or a plague reservoir. Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine 1993; 70: 188-207. PLoS Med. 368, 20120333 (2013). [10], Micropredation is an evolutionarily stable strategy within parasitism, in which a small predator lives parasitically on a much larger host plant, eating parts of it. Uncertainty resulting from imprecision (i.e. age or gender) will help users of a review further. They found that the tails and ears were significantly shorter in the mice raised in the cold in comparison to the mice raised at warmer temperatures, even though their overall body weights were the same. Commentary--goodbye M(C)ID! 12, 133 (2013). ISSN 1740-1526 (print). Nat. & Palmer, D. B. Immunosenescence: emerging challenges for an ageing population. Nkuo-Akenji, T. K., Chi, P. C., Cho, J. F., Ndamukong, K. K. J. aegypti and Ae. Unexplained inconsistency: need for individual participant data meta-analysis; need for studies in relevant subgroups. By contrast, temporary migration, often considered seasonal migration, is driven largely by economic patterns, including agricultural seasons that require short periods of intense labour. Natl Acad. Assessing the certainty of evidence in the importance of outcomes or values and preferences - Inconsistency, Imprecision, and other Domains. The outbreak of the Black Death in the Prussian town of Elbing (today the Polish town of Elblag) on August 24th, 1349, was a new milestone in the history of the Black Death. This presentation helps users to understand the important impact that typical baseline risks have on the absolute benefit that they can expect. Rachel E. Baker or C. Jessica E. Metcalf. NIEHS leads and coordinates NIH efforts to better understand how climate change affects peoples health. et al. 1d). risk of bias, inconsistency, indirectness or publication bias), then the interpretation in Sections 15.3.1 and 15.3.2. about the relation of the confidence interval to the true effect may be carried forward to the overall certainty. Stewart (eds.)]. Washington, DC: National Academies Press; 2011. Live cattle movement between East Africa andthe Arabian peninsula or from the Union of Comoros to Madagascar is thought to have contributed to the introduction of Rift Valley fever virus and caused outbreaks in these locations in 2000 (Arabian Peninsula) and 2008 (Madagascar)104,105. They also found that the mice raised in the cold had less blood flow in their extremities. National Bureau of Economic Research https://www.nber.org/papers/w28115 (2020). The impact of environmental and climatic variation on the spatiotemporal trends of hospitalized pediatric diarrhea in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Nat. Similarly, it is hard to pinpoint the pathway via which West Nile virus was introduced into the USA in the 1990s; however, transport by either shipping (transporting vectors) or aircraft (transporting a human host) is likely79. However, up to 1960 there were only a few studies of mortality among ordinary people, so the basis for this assessment was weak. For example, Nipah virus has been identified in several bat populations, particularly flying foxes, but in 1999 caused a severe disease outbreak in Malaysia, primarily among pig farmers7. Lancet 384, 14091411 (2014). Animal 11, 13 (2017). Climate change may play a role in the risk from pathogen spillover. Experimenters raised mice either at 7 degrees, 21 degrees or 27 degrees Celsius and then measured their tails and ears. [34] The medieval Persian physician Avicenna recorded human and animal parasites including roundworms, threadworms, the Guinea worm and tapeworms. Levine, J. M. & DAntonio, C. M. Forecasting biological invasions with increasing international trade. Predictable differences in adherence can be due to divergence in how recipients of care perceive the intervention (e.g. Lancet Microbe 1, e99e100 (2020). A driving factor behind the relationship between the military and the defense-minded corporations is that both sides benefitone side from obtaining For animals living in warm climates, Allen's rule predicts the opposite: that they should have comparatively high ratios of surface area to volume. Clin. Review authors can aid this understanding of the implications by laying out different scenarios that describe certain value structures. Climate change, in particular, may alter the range of global pathogens, allowing infections, particularly vector-borne infections, to expand into new locations. A clear distinction between SARS-CoV-2 and other recently emerged pathogens (for example, SARS-CoV and Ebola virus) is that an individual infected with SARS-CoV-2 may become infectious before developing symptoms146. Even as medical advances in the twenty-first century have spurred advances in population health, inequalities in access to these advances remain widespread between and within countries121. Aggregated mobility data could help fight COVID-19. Traditionally, many wildlife biologists researched ways to encourage abundant game animal populations to support recreational hunting and tourism. A standard approach for limiting the onward spread of a new outbreak is to isolate infected individuals when they show symptoms. Gandon, S., Mackinnon, M. J., Nee, S. & Read, A. F. Imperfect vaccines and the evolution of pathogen virulence. When computing NNTs, the values obtained are by convention always rounded up to the next whole number. A third approach (row 1c, Table 15.5.a and Table 15.5.b) relies on converting the continuous measure into a dichotomy and thus allows calculation of relative and absolute effects on a binary scale. 1a). While life expectancy continues to increase, and life years lost to infectious diseases decline, the new threat of infectious disease will likely come from emerging and re-emerging infections. See Section 15.5.3.1. The economic and environmental threats posed by trade-driven infectious diseases of plants and animals are increasingly being recognized, and calls for more stringent containment measures have intensified in recent years96,97. 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