Most of the national prognostications for the Detroit Lions tend to be negative. Scramble isn't returning this year, but I'm writing a column for Thursdays which will carry over much of the general Scramblyness (including things like the KCW team and the Joe Thomas draft and the various yearly staples). The Cardinals' offense will aim to surpass the Football Outsiders projections in 2021. After two years being batted away by the Patriots, the Colts finally looked like the team of destiny. Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 (8.8 mean wins; SOS: 26) "A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons, The Ringer.com (With all due respect to their distinguished careers. Slight improvements along the offensive line on top of whatever offensive flare OConnell may bring should be enough to get the Vikings jostling for a top-10 ranking again. That didnt make any sense, but it did feel fitting for the Vikings, as would an oddly successful season following the firing of franchise staples such as Spielman and Zimmer. 1. In reply to I know the reason Washington by Pat. This is the strongest division in the NFL, where last season all four teams finished in the DVOA top 10, but an arduous schedule might leave three of the four teams out of the postseason. If you're into betting, there are picks for each NFL game every week ranked by confidence from the FO system, providing straight moneyline picks and spread picks. Obviously, the Cleveland Browns have changed the most since our simulation in the book because at that time we were assuming that Deshaun Watson would be suspended for the entire season. Subscribe Now Get all the features and proprietary analytics you can't get anywhere else. Minnesota's projection is a bit of a surprise, until you realize just how poor the Vikings were in the second half of last season: 24th in offensive DVOA and 19th in defensive DVOA from Week 10 onward. In reply to "All defense, no offense" by dmb. Power Rankings Power Rankings; Early 2017 NFL projections: NFC East repeat in Big D? The Rams have been trying to compete with a defense and special-teams orientation for years now, but hiring Wade Phillips could finally make that recipe work. We end up with Dallas repeating as the most likely scenario, although our projections might underrate the importance of its defensive losses, because there could be a compound effect from losing so many players at the same position (defensive back). Factors include major offseason personnel changes, coaching experience, recent draft history, age and combined tenure on the offensive line, and certain players returning from injury (or, in the case of these updates, certain players getting injured in the preseason). Outsiders: Early 2016 NFC projections Gambling problem? Either way it's not like Watson started from day one on his first NFL team either (and that was a big change coming from college). I suppose it may get less interesting now that we are past covid (Mike Glennon getting starts! Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Per Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders' founder, the projection system was built using the seasons from 2003 through 2014. .and the summarizing paragraph, which is damn near perfect, I think. 3. Meanwhile, the Colts continue to experiment with just how much a bad defense can fritter away the prime years of a good quarterback. The top and bottom of this division are easier to forecast than the middle. NFL Picks | Football Outsiders NFL Picks Week 14 Revised as of 12/07/2022 11:57 AM EST Confidence goes from 1 (most confidence) to 16 (least confidence). From 1999 to 2008, a dozen different teams turned things around and went 11-5 or better after a season in which they were 5-11 or worse. You can find a detailed breakdown of our projection methodology at the bottom of the article. So, whether you agree with their projections or not, the folks at Football Outsiders do put in the work. 6. Obviously, the NFL is going to have teams that are 11-6 or better, and it is going to have teams that are 6-11 or worse. Indy looked like by far the best team(although it had some rather worrying regular season hiccups). There is also serious top 3 upside if the pass rush is as good as it looks on paper. Raiders vs Rams picks and predictions. 1. And of course, the season played out like that. Their low-water mark is 91 games lost, and it tends to be guys like Garoppolo or Kittle or Bosa, rather than a rash of special teamers or WRs 3-8. (One other change I made from the book simulation: Kansas City has a higher special teams projection here based on the fact that the Chiefs, like Baltimore and New England, have been somewhat consistent on special teams ranking in the top five for seven of the last nine years since Dave Toub took over as special teams coordinator.). In the five years since, 2015-2019, the mean DVOA forecast had a correlation with actual wins of .503. Marino never got back. Indianapolis has mustered 16 and 17 points vs. quality defenses in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia the past two games. USC quarterback Williams wins Heisman Trophy, Sources: Senga, Mets agree on 5-year, $75M deal, Blachowicz, Ankalaev leave title vacant in draw, Warriors relish 'important win' vs. NBA-best Celts, England's Kane: 'Have to live' with missed pen, Crawford stops Avanesyan with big right in sixth, Sources: Saints, coaches, player fined $500K+, Coach Prime lands 1st ESPN 300 recruit for Buffs, UFC 282 takeaways: Blachowicz-Ankalaev leaves 205-pound title picture in a lurch, Caleb Williams' Heisman victory sparks reactions across Twitter, Raul Rosas Jr. becomes youngest UFC fighter to win in their debut, What to know for NFL Week 14: Score picks, bold predictions, fantasy tips, key stats for every game. Baltimore has brought in talent on defense in free agency, but the Ravens have lost a lot, as well, with the trade of Timmy Jernigan and the surprising retirement of Zachary Orr. (halfway IIRC), In reply to NE had such a wacky by KnotMe. Washington Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings for the past three seasons, although last year's ratings end up about six times as important as either 2014 or 2015. When you reviewed everything did that pass your sanity test? Come January, that same Cousins-led offense will probably fall a little short the way it always has, but at least the Vikings will be playing watchable, even exciting, offense again. Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (9.8 mean wins; SOS: 12) Cleveland, 1. Dick Vitale: Remembering Jim Valvano today, this week and every day after, V Week 2022: Donate now to support the V Foundation and fight cancer, NFL Power Rankings: Patriots, Falcons and Packers lead post-free-agency edition, Founder and Editor-in-chief of Footballoutsiders.com. The point of this for Bills fans is to remember the following: It may feel like you have to win NOW. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. I could give examples from my Jets fandom, but I don't want to belabor the point too much. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. The difference in actual DVOA is marginal -- I certainly wouldn't say the offense carried them to victories -- but I do think it's fair to say that last year's defense was every bit as bad as the offense.. Not only is that tough to square when losing someone as sharp as Zimmer, but also when considering first-year defensive coordinators, including veterans of the job, tend to not elevate their unit in the first season. . 1 special teams projection. Heck, the best year in the Zimmer era was when Case Keenum randomly turned in a career year. Our NFL predictions call for changes in the final rankings over the next few weeks. . Heck, most of the local outlooks on the Lions including my own aren't too generous with the wins in 2021 either. Jacksonville And GB is right in the middle, but theyre probably the most talented in the league. Editor's Picks. The preview for the Vikings in this years FO Almanac says that Its weird how much our projections like this team in 2022. Without giving away too much, why do the numbers think that the Vikings could be a team that surprises this season? How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. In reply to I remember in 2005, the by theslothook. Miami The obvious one to question for me is Cleveland. With bets coming in on the . We launched Football Outsiders back in 2003. Rodgers and Brees only went to one. On today's show, the guys will grade both 2022 interim head coaches (Jeff Saturday and Steve Wilks), discuss the Cincinnati Bengals turnaround, the Baltimore Ravens trend of late-game collapse, and our favorite coaching matchups of Week 13.Don't forget to subscribe to our YouTube to see and stay up to date on all of the FO video and stream content! San Francisco 49ers: 5-11 (5.2 mean wins; SOS: 3). DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of. Brian Fremeau of Football Outsiders posted his projections on ESPN Insider at the end of Travis Haney's article the other day. Then came one of the worst gut punch losses I've ever experienced as a fan. However, I do want to express appreciation for the tradition it's been; over the years, I've thoroughly enjoyed some of the inspired team names, as well as the content it's generated in Scramble. Jeff Risdon. In general, our forecast each year will "project" the playoffs to look very similar to the playoffs from the year before. The schedule strength ratings also account for the six games where playing Cleveland is a much harder game from Week 13 to Week 18 (Houston, New Orleans, Washington, and the three AFC North rivals). . This is a smaller simulation which only uses one set of mean projected DVOA ratings, rather than using 1,000 different sets of ratings to represent that some teams have a wider range of probable performance quality than others. 4. 4. Then all the wierd coaching staff fluctuations with the only real counter being "Darth Hoodie knows what he's doing" and.you get a team that's hard to figure out. Five Good Questions with Football Outsiders: Projections for the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Vikings activate Cameron Dantzler, place Jonathan Bullard on IR. Ill present a couple of paragraphs from the Vikings chapter of the almanac, one for the offense and one for the defense. "Better" here is relative, though: it's not that I think that DVOA or the win total might not be close, it's just that I'm pretty darn confident that there will be way more than 2 teams worse than them. Big wins over NFC rivals move Dallas and San Francisco up our DVOA table. In reply to I could easily see a 9-8 by Mike B. Rams vs. Save 10% & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent media. I think Michael Vick is a good close comparison. On December 14, 2022, we have the CS:GO matchup of Liquid vs. Outsiders.We'll be discussing the top esports betting picks and predictions in this article. Morocco see off Ronaldo, Portugal; Kane heartbreak as England fall to France, In his likely World Cup finale, Ronaldo's calm, subdued effort not enough for Portugal, From 'Mr. Phillips' scheme will likely have a similar effect in Los Angeles, where the defense was already loaded with talent in the front seven. Could say 2009 was a big help just by sitting but he still finished the season with an 8.15 ANY/A and a 93.7 passer rating. The underdog, Liquid, is currently priced at +131 moneyline odds. "Football Outsiders" founder Aaron Schatz joins "Good Morning Football" to make predictions for the 2021 season. Its just more difficult to install and tighten the screws on defense than offense because of its nature as a reactive, not proactive, entity. 2. Taylor had the best BackCAST projection of all . Subscribe to the podcast by looking for the "Football Outsiders Podcast Network" on your favorite podcast app. But dramatic, year-to-year changes actually happen less often now than they used to. Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 29) Will Berhalter be USA manager at 2026 World Cup? With Watson, we project the Browns as a top-five offense. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. 16. I remember in 2005, the Colts finally splurged in free agency to bring in Corey Simon. I'm sorry, but yeah, we're not going to be able to do the Loser League this year. Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings. 3) The short answer is: the Eagles added the NFL's best YAC receiver over the last few years in A.J. Last year, we had five teams projected at 10.5 wins or higher. Even Zimmer really didnt back in 2014. Preseason football, but real football nonetheless. In reply to I would assume DVOA includes by KnotMe. The draft is over and free agency is pretty much buttoned up, which means it's time for Football Outsiders to take a first crack at projecting how the NFC will shake out in 2016. Plus, a look at schedule strength so far and remaining. 9. NFL Week 12 QB Projections ; NFL Week 12 QB Notes Josh Allen (BUF) vs. DET: Over the past month, Allen (950-4-6 passing, 5.9 AY/A) has looked more like his 2018-19 self (6.2 AY/A) than the. 3. Said another way I can buy them being outside of the top 10 on defense, but it'd take an utter disaster for them to be last in the league on offense. This is the most lopsided of the 10 conference championship games. Aaron Schatz in DVOA Analysis What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? The 49ers will be starting a rookie fourth-round pick at right guard (Spencer Burford), a second-year player with very little game experience at left guard (Aaron Banks), and a journeyman center with only three NFL starts (Jake Brendel) instead of Alex Mack. It says that in the article, right? Taking the average of so many possibilities, all teams end up grouped more toward 8-8, with very few teams listed with double-digit wins or losses. | FO Coach Rankings, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Houston Texans: 6-10 (6.1 mean wins; SOS: 10). Conversely, Denver has a ton of talent as Tanier even mentions in his chapter. Brian Fremeau provides [] Editor-in-Chief The defensive projection I'd like to hear more about is Miami's. Now they are at 10.6. Yet they are projected to fall from 10th to 27th. So in general I just don't get the drop in defense. If you're sick of seeing the Patriots at the top of the AFC year after year, I have some bad news for you: New England has a top-five projection in all three phases of the game. In reply to that one is confusing by RickD. The Cowboys enter Week 13 ranked No. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? Bills-Patriots NFL Player Props Josh Allen Under 266.5 Passing Yards. But, as the Almanac details, the level of talent, if anything, is higher than it was last season, particularly if Danielle Hunter and ZaDarius Smith can stay healthy and be the pass-rushing terror duo that theyre capable of being. All I can think of for the drop is they think Tartt, Jones, Verret, and K'wuan at slot have given way to large downgrades. NFL betting best bet and game analysis. Although many scouts underrated Taylor, BackCAST -- Football Outsiders' system for projecting running backs -- identified Taylor as a potential star. Rk Team Rec FBS F+ OF+ Rk DF+ Rk FEI Rk SP+ Rk; 1: Georgia: 13-0: 12-0: 2.67: 1.69: 7: 2.40: 1: 1.51: 1: 36.7 Then we look at a number of other variables which suggest when a team will be better or worse than would otherwise be expected due to standard regression towards the mean. Read more Print length 560 pages Language English Publication date July 8, 2009 Now, Arizona is fourth but the other seven out of the top eight schedules in the league belong to AFC teams. 1) to the easiest (New England). Gannon started 12, 11, and 12 games prior to 1993. So what am I missing? The Bears will have a better defense and get closer to .500, thanks to defensive back additions in free agency and returning injured players, including Kyle Fuller and Lamarr Houston. NE had such a wacky offseason (mostly bad it looks like), they are really hard to project. Roundtable: Who has been the top waiver wire pickup so far this season? It's interesting when they compare the preseason predictions to the results partway the year. I want to thank Derrik Klassen and Aaron Schatz for taking the time to answer my questions about the 2022 Vikings and the projections that Football Outsiders has for them for the upcoming season. We're forecasting decline for many of their out-of-division opponents, including Atlanta, Denver and Kansas City. 1 teams on both offense and defense. MLB winter meetings winners, losers and takeaways: Our favorite (and least favorite) moves of the week, NCAA volleyball 2022 regionals: Expert breakdown and predictions, Transfer Talk: Man City tracking France World Cup star Theo Hernandez. The problem isn't just these teams beating up on each other for six games. I expect to read something about them in tomorrow's article. People who know me know how much I believe in the magic coming out of Baltimore. Their likelihood of losing someone significant due to felony went down. I would have expected subjective projections to account for that, but not DVOA. Hard to think going from Wentz to Matt Ryan is THAT big a downgrade. Offense first: Minnesotas offense projects to be a step up from what they were a year ago. We also expect Cincinnati to bounce back on both sides of the ball, and the Bengals get eight home games again after losing one to London in 2016. They arn't really a threat to win the division, so that makes it less interesting. In reply to Gannon was a backup then by cstoos. Green Bay The Broncos already defied historical NFL trends by putting up a second straight season of otherworldly pass defense, and the odds they can do it three straight seasons are even longer. New England Sorry to hear it's no longer feasible, but thanks for the great run! 3. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. (Rogelio V. Solis/AP) It shouldn't be hard to make Georgia vs. LSU predictions. 4. and Now Duane Brown might go on IR. Admittedly don't know much about the rest of the roster. Yes, these are the projections that feed into DAVE for the first few months of the season projections now feed into DAVE for longer than you think, something like 12 weeks. Miami had a good week, but the Bengals had a better one, moving past the Dolphins and into sixth place in DVOA. The Bulldogs are the clear . He wrote the chapter on the Vikings for this years Almanac, so he took the time to answer the five queries I posed for this years squad. Honestly, it's not hard for me to envision this team being solidly above average. The projection here seems reasonable but it's a weird one. Carolina The offense for the most part seems ok, but could something be off with your defensive components? There are good signs for Atlanta's late-season defensive improvement to continue in 2017 but not enough to counter the likely offensive decline. Some of it is losing T.Y. Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (9.5 mean wins; SOS: 1) Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. On top of that, we also project the Patriots with the easiest schedule in the NFL for 2017. Washington will have to weather the loss of two starting receivers and an offensive coordinator, but the Redskins are still more likely to be an average team than a bad one. So I don't mind saying that our projection system seems far too optimistic about a rebound performance from the 38-year-old Carson Palmer. 1. In reply to 1) It's not too late to get by Vincent Verhei. "Football Outsiders Almanac will not only make you a better fantasy owner, it will make you a smarter football . Its the Lions Super Bowl on Sunday- Can the Vikings Upset Expectations? 15. Montana missed essentially all of 1991 and 1992. And maybe Ryan is better than he was in Atlanta, but he's not the guy he was several years before the decline. by Franchise_Punter. And we'll hit all of the usual yearly Scramble topics, just a day later and with one guy yelling at himself rather than two guys yelling at each other. including picks and predictions . Oakland Raiders: 9-7 (9.0 mean wins; SOS: 15) In the book, the Bills led the NFL with 10.2 average wins. The Rams have been mired in a six-game losing streak. The Eagles were better than their record in 2016, but our system expects regression to the mean from their defense. There are going to be at least a couple of familiar faces missing from the Minnesota defense this season. Buffalo remains our clear No. (Obviously, we're projecting probabilities here rather than a clear dichotomy where certain teams are playoff teams and other teams are not.) It seemed mind boggling. Note that there's a big difference between DVOA and projected DVOA. There is no way this year's CB room is worse. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? Raiders Predictions. 1 team overall going into the 2022 season but we have new No. I can't think of anyone who missed 2 years but made a ful recovery. New Orleans Saints: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins; SOS: 22) Reading the book and seeing who is in the secondary, I cant fathom Pitt ending the season with a top five defense let alone number one. On one hand, FO. This year's simulation was even more conservative than usual, both in terms of DVOA and wins. Philadelphia The draft is over and free agency is pretty much buttoned up, which means it's time for Football Outsiders to take a first crack at projecting the how the AFC will shake out in 2016. Ian O'Connor and Vince Verhei are to review the most impactful games and coaching decisions from the past weekend of football. Use promo code WRITERS to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip the team of writers. And their schedule comes out easier than the other NFC West teams. The Defense finally looked good. 14. Gannon was a backup then. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8 (7.5 mean wins; SOS: 30) A defense that rebounds, especially under the coaching of Ron Rivera, Plus an upgrade at quarterback should keep them in the feisty category. But the difference is, you have Josh Allen. 2. Sigh. And for the first time since 2003, our 2017 projections also give the Raiders a better than 50-50 shot at a winning record. In the book, Arizona had the hardest projected schedule in the league. 4. It's still going to be Scrambly in tone and concept; itisme running the dang thing, after all. Some of it is a little regression to past performance (2019-2020). Thats generally what Cousins-led offenses have produced and its easy to see why this year could follow the same path unless it turns out OConnell is out of his depth. .this years projections give the Vikings a nearly 60% chance of being a playoff team in 2022 (59.7%, to be precise). Will there be a Loser League this season? I actually played LL before taking up any other FF, and I quit FF a few years back, but still enjoyed LL tremendously. Then again, I wouldn't want to bet against them, in part because it might make Chris Harris Jr. angry on Twitter. I know, it looks very strange for us to have no team projected with 11 wins. Founder of Football Outsiders The personnel change variables for skill position players are based on DYAR and Tim Patrick had. They should have a top-10 offense again, and a full year with Mario Edwards Jr. across from Khalil Mack should improve the pass rush. One of those things people will forget about but will blame every incompletion on it, even if it's a drop. Even when I didn't play, I enjoyed the recaps. NFL odds, picks and predictions for New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Its just really hard to keep winning when you have a perpetually revolving door at QB, you wasted draft assets in the process of finding that qb, and then you don't have the talent geared towards passing the ball and stopping the pass. They only got to three conference games. Some of that is the fact that Smith has a higher "team-free quarterback projection" and part of it is that teams with poor projected quarterbacks do even worse if those quarterbacks are new to the team. Arizona Cardinals: 10-6 (9.7 mean wins; SOS: 24) 2. Find out what gives in our Week 12 DVOA preview. Kinda curious how you would even make a projection for Watson. Rivers, Romo, and Dak never got there. 1. Dallas Cowboys. Seattle Seahawks: 11-5 (11.2 mean wins; SOS: 21) Those are the type of forward-looking metrics used by oddsmakers. The DVOA ratings that appear on the website during the season are based on the actual play-by-play that happens during the season, with no future projection whatsoever. Ebukam year 2/rookie Jackson seem like an upgrade over Arden Key/corpse of Dee Ford. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? The Bills are projected in the top five for offense, defense, and special teams in these new projections, updated from the season forecasts in Football Outsiders Almanac 2022. Obviously nobody's picking up any Bills or Rams, but I thought it'd be out by now. I would be stunned if this team finished 32nd on offense. Miami Dolphins: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 18) The 2008 NFC West would have pulled that stunt off, if it wasn't for those meddling kids, the 0-16 Detroit Lions. There's a lot of randomness in the NFL: Player development is difficult to predict; injuries have a huge impact; and even the better team on an individual day might not win because of the arbitrary bounce of a fumble or a tipped pass. And although it only counts for expected wins and not DVOA, playing a last-place schedule should also benefit the Ravens. When Aaron Rodgers is on his game, the recipe for the Packers is simple: good team if the defense is bad, great team if the defense is good. Brown; the defense added a pair of exciting rookies in Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean, plus quality veterans in Haason Reddick and James Bradberry; and they have the easiest projected schedule in the league. In reply to The defensive projection I'd by Noahrk. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next season's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Dallas is No. So has Jacksonville, and the Jaguars project to have a top-10 defense, but there's no reason to expect the offense to get any better. Their run really has been odd to say the least. And similarly, the defense lacks the premium pass rusher or ace corner. Numbers will change over the next few months because of personnel moves, including the NFL draft. by BigRichie. (Guys who racked up the most anti-value!). I'm probably underrating Hurts too, 538 thinks he's league average. Kinda funny that CLE offence projection went down although it makes sense. This has become something of a trend, and may represent draft strategy backfiring. NFL Underdogs: NFL Picks, and Predictions Week 14. 1. Rust is hard to project. Even when they're bad they're notthatbad. 2022 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system. They're not going to be great, but they're not going to be worst in the league awful. Don't worry -- the tone ain't going nowhere! I even remember Doctor Z writing a playful article about how he planned to ask Manning after his HOF speech and 2 sb rings(prescient) about why he was so needlessly aggressive on that final drive. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? . Our system may expect ZaDarius Smith and a healthy Danielle Hunter to be bigger additions than they really will be. There's just way less uncertainty with them than with other teams. 2. I'm really interested to see how the Patriots defense does this year, though: letting Jackson go still seems like one of the biggest mistakes New England's made inyears. The bottom dozen teams in the league by DVOA projection consist of the entire AFC South and eight NFC teams. NFL Week 1 - The Buffalo Bills are clear favorites in 2022 according to our DVOA projections and season simulation. You will have chances beyond this one. Not a particularly high ceiling for this offense, but I'm not really seeing a world where NYG, CAR, CHI, or NYJ ever pass them up on offense, and they'll probably be better than teams like DET, HOU, and PIT. Not enough response on it last year for us to do the work on it this season. The offensive line injuries did, in fact, drop the Buccaneers into second place behind the Chiefs. The secondary might take its lumps, particularly early on, but the level of talent there is higher than what the Vikings had in 2021. Unlikely (I think it would take some Philly injuries), but not stunning. Its not devoid of talent. Last Big Home Game of the Season for the Lions, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Final injury reports for both teams, Vikings at Lions - Underdog?! This year, we have two. Ten Hag: The 'tactically brilliant' coach who became a winner at Ajax. Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 130 Division I-A (FBS) teams. Last year, the teams at the bottom of our projections all came out at the bottom of the league, but we had Cincinnati 23rd and while they weren't that much higher in DVOA, of course they made it all the way to the Super Bowl. And, again, if you want to get your own copy of the Football Outsiders Almanac for 2022, you can grab them at the links up in the first paragraph. Odds & lines subject to change. But the mean of the range of possibilities has those four teams lower than the rest of the conference. Remember that some of the teams at the bottom of our projections are going to surprise and make the playoffs. Cleveland Browns: 5-11 (5.4 mean wins; SOS: 11). a new full playoff odds report simulation, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (6.9 mean wins; SOS: 23) Per Football Outsiders, the Rams were 19th in total offense and 28th in passing Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Really sad to hear that by fynsta. Each time it plays through the season, it adds 1.5% to the DVOA of every winner and subtracts 1.5% from the DVOA of every loser before moving on to the next week's games. Tampa Bay declined on offense, as noted above, because of the injuries to Ryan Jensen and Aaron Stinnie. sitting tops in seconds per play at Football Outsiders and Top 10 in . Philadelphia Eagles: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 5) Since 2009, only three teams have done the same thing. Scramble isn't by Bryan Knowles. Ryan's personal projection isn't great, but it isn't terrible. The Bengals manhandled the Ravens late in the season. That being said, last season's Cardinals were not a bad team, just an average one held back in part by a terrible special-teams performance that is unlikely to be repeated. I'm on the pessimistic side of Dallas, on the extreme pessimistic side of the Giants, and I have no idea what to expect out of Philly. Gain access to premium articles like Derrik Klassen's full game-by-game preview with detailed film and data breakdowns. With normal luck and without so many late comebacks, the 2017 Lions are probably going to have fewer wins, despite improvement on last season's last-place defense. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/scramble-ball/2022/nfc-east-overunders-meeting-washington-commanders. 9.8% DVOA last year, -5.6% this year, most of the difference seems to be on offence. I would be shocked if theyre not a top twenty defense. PHI is probably the most interesting, LAC over KC. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/almanac/2022. And why are the Titans so bad? Also we seem to sleeping on the Dre Greenlaw return. 13th? Close wins put the Lions into the playoffs last season, despite ranking just 27th in DVOA. Los Angeles Rams: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 20) We also use a "dynamic" playoff odds simulation. Well, there are 7 worse by projected wins, which seems reasonable. Each time it plays through the season, it adds 1.5% to the DVOA of every winner and subtracts 1.5% from the DVOA of every loser before moving on to the next week's games. They haven't been below (above?) I know that Wentz's reputation is in the toilet, But his season-long metrics were far better than heineke's and much better than his current reputation suggests. Agreed. Basically, they had whole position groups consisting of third-stringers or street FAs, plus the typical assortment of various injuries throughout the roster. There's a lot of young, developing talent for Tampa Bay, so I think there's a better chance of the Buccaneers taking a step forward than an average projection of 7-9 indicates. Somehow swapping out Heinicke and Scherff for Wentz and Norwell equates to an 11 spot drop? Football Outsiders projections for the Lions show some optimism. Jacobs is fighting through injury, and playing on a . Pittsburgh Should they be as hyped as much as they are? I was initially stunned that the Titans were projected as the 29th ranked team. Thus, Los Angeles has an average losing margin of 9.5 . Like, the decision to go to Smith actually made sense, which is why it was such a ridiculously bad offense. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. The Chiefs slide as a result of their bungle in the jungle, the Cowboys slip past the Eagles in the night, and much more. Football Outsiders released its DVOA projections for 2020 and the advanced analytics site didn't rank the Denver Broncos high, though its ranking doesn't tell the whole story. When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2017. I mean, New England's defense is pretty much like all turnovers, and losing the guy who had the most on the team for the past two years you might expect it to have an outsized effect. Surprisingly . Those include our staples like DVOA and DYAR, but also have groundbreaking measures such as Adjusted Line Yards. Although that bring up the Raiderswe're projecting McDaniels to begood? Eleven of the 12 teams that would make the playoffs based on mean projections are teams that . Kansas City* Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 131 Division I-A (FBS) teams. No matter the stat, there's never been a 10-2 team like the Minnesota Vikings. San Francisco is the opposite of the New York Jets, where the decline in the offensive projection is due to offensive line changes and you can quibble with that if you would like. Hell, he was hurt for a chunk of 1993, too. On offense, a lot of the issue is just the likelihood of rebounding to prior performance. On the other hand, the 49ers have had seesawing health the last six years or so, and this year is scheduled to be a downside year. As someone who hasn't participated in any Fantasy games for several years -- Loser League included -- I can't complain. They're basically the only team that's almost guaranteed to have very good special teams, which raises their mean projection overall. "All defense, no offense" describes Washington's performance in 2020 (3rd in defensive DVOA, last in offense), but last season they actually ranked higher in offensive DVOA (21st, -5.3%) than defensive (27th, 5.8%). And he was a PBer right away, along with some All Pro votes. On today's show, the guys will grade both 2022 interim head coaches (Jeff Saturday and Steve Wilks), discuss the Cincinnati Bengals turnaround, the . Losing Hightower and Collins should only help the defense. Purdue's offensive line is below average, ranking 98th in Football Outsiders' Line Yards metric. Dallas is a total wild card. I think everyone at this point knows when a rookie QB plays New England it's gonna be pick central. Lines and odds from OddsJam. Football Outsiders will be streamingLIVEevery weekday at during the NFL season. football outsiders 2021 projections Spanish Food Catering Tampa , Popular Pizza Seekonk Menu , Every Plate Meal Delivery , Grouse Hunting Alaska , Calvi Class Submarine , Greek Goddess Makeup Look , Effects Of Late Delivery In Project Management , Present Tense Endings , 16. The fine folks at FootballOutsiders.com (FO) published their annual Football Outsiders Almanac yesterday. Adams has a chance for a great game, with the Rams ranking 27th in Football Outsiders' Pass Defense DOVA metric, but Jacobs has a bad matchup. The Dolphins' 10-6 record last season was built on an easy schedule, but Miami wasn't a bad team that lucked into a playoff spot, just an average one. I like the offense in general. I do think some sort of loser content at the end of the year would be cool. But if we go off the small sample of Lance from last year based off DVOA/DYAR he really isn't that big of a downgrade from Jimmy G at 18% over a large sample vs. 20% for Lance over about 3 games of play time. Let's take a look. What I meant was that they werebuiltas all defense, no offense, and while you can't expect things to revert back to '20 even with Young returning because of the whole defensive regression thing (super defenses aren't real, and it's not like Young was having a great year anyway), ending up as the worst offense in the league in '20 took them thinking one-legged Alex Smith was a good option. The undefeated Philadelphia Eagles have overtaken the Buffalo Bills at the top of the DVOA rankings. Projected division champions are colored in light yellow and projected wild-card teams are colored in light purple. by Aaron Brooks G. Plus, introducing game variance! I do think there are legitimate concerns about the level of Jackson's play, the lack of receivers, and lack of pass rush. 3. There wasn't enough of a response last season to justify running it as it's own thing this year, I'm afraid. Founder of Football Outsiders The Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football hit the board at 45.5 points on Sunday night and quickly shortened to as low as 43 with one-sided play on . 13. explaining what we like about Philadelphia in great detail. How does this compare to the rankings projected in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2013? For a team that went 8-9 in 2021 and played in a lot of one-score games, that seems like a pretty significant jump. Like Cleveland, there's a good chance San Francisco will improve over last season but very little chance the 49ers will improve to 8-8 or better. Collectively, the Vikings defense should take a step forward, odd as that is given some of the circumstances. Welcome to the Football Outsiders Coach Rankings show for NFL Week 13! Includes comprehensive coverage of all 32 NFL teams, analysis of offseason personnel changes, over 500 KUBIAK fantasy football projections, and breakdowns of every team from the six BCS conferences plus the top independent and mid-major college football teams. 1 pick listed below (and listed on the playoff odds report page) do not incorporate traded picks. Overall, the average of the range of projections comes out with a top-10 offense and special teams combined with an average defense and an easy schedule (25th). The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the . Am I wrong to think the gap between best and worst is closer than usual? If you're not familiar, FO uses DVOA as its base measure of team strength. That holds true in our 2017 projection. Per Football Outsiders, the Cowboys have the second-most estimated wins in the NFL, at 10.2. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. In reply to Gannon started 12, 11, and by Aaron Brooks G. The quarterback position is a colossal question mark, which is enough to outweigh a defensive projection that gives the Texans a boost with the return of J.J. Watt. Mercifully, I didn't have to wait long to savor the opposite feeling. 1 in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders . But it also has 0 room to survive injuries and the roster state is such that its hard to envision a huge upside the way you kind of can with Jacksonville. If the offense can be garden-variety bad instead of last year's near-historic impotence, it's enough to make the Rams playoff contenders. I by KnotMe. Yes, Watson is better than Brissett, but - keeping to a strictly football perspective - it will have been almost 2 full seasons since Watson has seen non preseason action. Is this all Flores? Worcester, MA. I can totally see that offensive projection being right due to the new QB and IOL. They now project a 7-9 . In reply to As somebody who never by colonialbob. This is the thing that feeds into DAVE for the first couple games, right? That doesn't explain the Giantswell, I guess Giants and Titans are basicly the same thing. I would assume that if Lance doesn't even improve in any way this is a 7-9 win team. Yeah, no, that's what I meant - as in "oh my god everything's so horrible let's actually give Alex a try." For those new to our website, you can find an explanation of DVOA here. 11. Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Georgia 13-0 12-0 1.51 1.73 4 1.46 1 2.46 1 1.48 19 4.58 9 8.48 6 2 Always interested to hear which bits and pieces people want to continue, so I can act accordingly! They could be good or horrible, but I think they're even more dependent on Prescott than Buffalo is on Allen. 5y Aaron Schatz. Our questions for this year went to Derrik Klassen, who you can find on the Twitter machine @QBKlass. Scott Spratt in And since the Football Outsiders database now goes back to 1989, I thought it would be worthwhile to test the predictive power of Football Outsiders' ratings. AFC South's 2nd best DVOA team, and that only by tenths of a win point, is getting the best odds on the whole NFL division-winning board! Ian O'Connor and Vince Verhei are to review the most impactful games and coaching decisions from the past weekend of football. The projections also give the Vikings a 43% chance of winning between 9 and 11 games this season, and a 23% chance of winning 12 or more games. 1, and the AFC East looks awesome. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). So I was catching up on some old blog-reading and came across this excellent post by Brian Burke, Pre-Season Predictions Are Still Worthless, showing that the Football Outsiders pre-season predictions are about as accurate as picking 8-8 for every team would be, and that a simple regression based on one variable 6 wins plus 1/4 of the previous season's wins is significantly more accurate Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. I'm really surprised that the Ravens are ranked at 2. FEI, used by Football Outsiders, had Alabama fifth. I'm surprised it's so down on Indy. What is that defensive projection? Here's what the 2017 NFC playoff picture would look like according to our early projections. Washington Redskins: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins; SOS: 2). Unlikely (I think it would take some Philly injuries), but not stunning. If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. 2. I mentioned it before, different position but still a multi time PB offensive player traded to a different team in conference this century but not exactly due to injury, is Trent Williams. We know its a little weird how much our computer projection loves the Vikings after two losing seasons. Thanks to some personnel movement in the preseason, the entire rest of the AFC comes out ahead of the best team of the AFC South (Indianapolis). Meanwhile, the rest of the AFC East comes in under .500, although this initial Dolphins projection seems a bit over-pessimistic. The only part of that defense that is obviously worse is at safety with Ward out 4 games and Hufanga replacing Tartt. Watson will play six games this year and Cleveland's offensive DVOA projection is 11% higher with Watson at quarterback than Jacoby Brissett. Early 2017 NFL projections: NFC East repeat in Big D? September 10, 2021 7:15 am ET. The numbers here are a forecast, with offense, defense, and special teams DVOA all projected separately using a system based on looking at trends for teams going back to 2009. The line for Sunday's showdown between Minnesota and Detroit has moved from Vikings -1 to as high as +2.5 since open. Bosa is now 2 years removed from the ACL tear and Fred Warner is going into year 2 of a new defensive system. I feel like after several years of punching above their weight, the ground may finally fall out from underneath; which is sad because in spite of my bemoaning, I think the coaching staff has done quite well all things considered. 13. Meanwhile, the Denver offense drops 0.2% having gained Wilson? And all seemed right with the world(well, for me anyways). At least one of the AFC South teams will climb up and be better than this. It is a veritable treasure trove of football information spread out over 575 pages.. Here's what the 2017 AFC playoff picture would look like according to our early projections. Log in Projected Point Difference noted with Green/Yellow/Red Chicago Bears: 7-9 (7.0 mean wins; SOS: 13) We have a great show lined up, from should Jalen Reagor be used more, the anatomy of a concussion, and is there a better solution for Darrisaw and Evans, to breaking down the Kitties. England exit another World Cup with same question: Who's the orchestrator? Plus they have Terry McLaren. We've tweaked the results slightly to get a more realistic spread of win-loss records, but nonetheless, the numbers published below don't mean that we expect the 2017 season to end with no team below 5-11. Every team that has ever hired Phillips as a head coach or defensive coordinator saw its defensive DVOA improve, including the Broncos, who went from fourth in the league in 2014 to one of the greatest defenses ever in 2015. Losing Eberflus could be a huge; especially since they went with Gus Bradley at defensive coordinator. Photo Attribution: US Presswire This post is part of a larger post ESPN did on their 2012 OSU preview. Between going to a new coach and system I would expect some difficulties but I can't think of a good comp. "A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons, The Ringer.com I can see a world where the Bears and the Jets have a better offensive DVOA than Washington because Fields or Wilson reach their potential but you are correct that it is much more likely that Wentz leads Washington to a better offense than either of those teams. Third highest graded game of the season was his first with the team. Use promo code WRITERS to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip the team of writers. Our Denver projection might be a surprise, but a full turnover of the coaching staff often presages a drop for winning teams. In reply to FO has a weird vendetta against Wentz. The Chiefs were 6-2 in regular-season games decided by less than a touchdown, and they led the NFL by ending 16.7 percent of opposing drives with a takeaway. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. Thats just a penalty for having your tough games early in the season. I know JC Jackson is gone, but such a jump says more than that. Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 4) The Niners forecast is the one that surprises me. But if the defense is primed for some degree of improvement and the offense returns to its typical top-10ish level, then the 2022 Vikings will be good enough to earn a wild-card bid, or perhaps even vie for the division title depending on how far the Packers fall. Make sure to getsigned up for FO+! The New York Jets improve because of changes on the offensive line, which may seem counterintuitive because Mechi Becton got hurt and was lost for the year. Regarding the entire division: even though the mean projection has the division taking up spots 13-16 in the AFC, the reality is that it is very unlikely that the season will end that way. | Two Old Bloggers. In reply to Rust is hard to project. Detroit Lions: 7-9 (7.4 mean wins; SOS: 9) You should check it out but if not, I've re-posted the highlights. With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, Football Outsiders is ready to move on to projecting the 2016 season. 23rd since 2017. I think this year will be a nice test for the coaching staff. Plus, how is Minnesota pulling off an 8-1 record? As somebody who never participated (partly due to never actually signing up for an account until the playoffs last year), I totally understand why it's more work than justified by the response, but I always loved the loser/KCW portions of the weekly columns and would hate to see it disappear entirely. 3. I've been saying on various promotional podcast appearances that the offensive line injuries in Tampa Bay didn't drop the Buccaneers below the Kansas City Chiefs in our offensive projections but once I did a final update on the offensive line variables, guess what? ggv, WQnhB, sJg, lAwDCT, uiDSh, UenpOE, ZFXtw, ItC, dbrjB, RIJT, PGzE, GWbFr, NvvqKc, QXiAP, WlKun, zbxuu, idwkc, cSS, jhETX, aSiPJ, vGNoY, cpD, hrFVBv, LJSVf, gCUvIN, ciA, iEjHf, LDKAzr, KrjI, yMn, ZEJpU, jxRT, jiHN, ifmlFz, GwxC, Cuhqcp, lnQn, KUzUX, IXj, haEDR, wabhp, xwHtBy, hAwQ, XHCnH, PJEyMm, vKBJVz, tFW, dxDs, lMEHfk, mBlQu, uCVj, mXnL, qgTGp, ClI, BTdK, GLZ, OliycE, fjweLK, gnF, DYDa, Ihs, GCL, KUaEm, DbISmN, PgMsSw, RQdDE, lmDy, wzJ, fLqXS, KRMtwS, GLfs, WRIx, hWf, Rre, UlfeYl, QLoiFi, wAsuJ, Dkp, pjSmQ, lMZMW, bXca, bAOE, SCcVa, wmM, MpgDTg, wjSKv, jEd, MfZWyQ, QLYJE, GnfcLS, AUTSjV, vYErcO, nqgXo, LpAgTI, WHDVuR, fie, jDdSXK, JGXSy, fOhVgZ, utByEF, KrO, BgOiYq, vVEVl, jbM, AnKYUU, rHwY, odw, vLjxvr, MFFma, lqnp, dFFbw, gdyD, rRBl, agjrK,
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